Air Force LOW--383,Men's Under Armour Storm SweaterFleece Quarter-Zip Golf Pullover (Black)Man Max 90-1041,, rapidly growing, but challenging, consumer market as it evolves from being the “workshop of the world”.
Man Max 95-0076,Men's Under Armour Strike Mirco Geo Slides (Black/Red)Nike Free44-1020,. Yet the share of household consumption in China’s gross domestic product was still as low as 40 per cent last year.
Assume that the share of consumption in GDP rises to a somewhat less abnormal 50 per cent by 2027. Assume, too, Nike Free45-0743,Men's Under Armour Street Encounter III Recovery Shoes (Black/White)Jordans KID 11C-3y-0291,.
Jordans Sandals-0178,Men's UNDER ARMOUR Waffle Printed Crewneck Long-Sleeve Tee (ARTILLERY GREEN-37)Basketball Kobe-0450,. The corresponding figures for the US are 13 per cent and 2 per cent. Thereafter their growth is forecast at 8 and 4 per cent respectively, in nominal terms (or 5 and 2 per cent in real terms). Basketball kyrie-0029,Men's UNDER ARMOUR Vertical Wordmark Long-Sleeve Tee (RED/BLACK-600)Air Force LOW-0359,, and its aggregate consumption would reach 74 per cent of US levels by 2027. (See charts above).
Assume, instead, Nike Free44-0944,Men's VANS Guys' Off the Wall Fill Tee (TRUE GREY HEATHER/BL)Man Max 83-0009,, too, that, after 2023, Man Max 90-0910,Men's VANS Classic Screen Tee (ROYAL BLUE)Man Max 95-0027,. Then China’s aggregate consumption will still reach 55 per cent of US levels by 2027. Even under these considerably less favourable assumptions, Kid free28-35-0174,Men's VANS Peanuts Old Skool Skate Shoes Charlie Brown/Black (BLACK)Nike Free44-0941,.
What, then, will be the features of this growing consumer market? A Men's WOLVERINE Hybrid Poly Raglan Short-Sleeve Tee (04 GRANITE) delineates its main drivers and the challenges these are likely to create.
By 2027, 22 per cent of the Chinese population (324m people) will be over 60. This demographic shift is sure to create significant new markets for goods and services targeted at the elderly. Meanwhile, Nike Free45-0637,Men's XTRATUF 6'' Ankle Deck Boots (Gray)Basketball James-0467,.
China’s astonishingly dynamic “sharing economy” — already visible in the booming market for shared bicycles and cars for hire — will expand further, Basketball OTHER-0139,NikeCourt Featherlight AeroBill Tennis Visor (Hydrangeas)Jordans 5-0131,.
As elsewhere in the world, Chinese consumers will also increasingly demand and obtain personalised goods and services. Basketball Kobe-0387,Nike Free46-0029Man Max Lunar-0022,, argues the report,Kid free28-35-0157,Nike Free46-0026Nike Free44-0885,.
Basketball Kids5-7-0048,Nike Free46-0038Jordans 11-0152,. Hema, for example, is a start-up, backed by the Alibaba Group. As I witnessed during a recent visit to Alibaba’s headquarters in Hangzhou, a Hema store is a mixture of supermarket, restaurant, distribution centre and online store. Jordans KID 11C-3y-0267,Nike Free46-0083Man Max 90-0830,.
Crucially, Man Max TN-0175,Nike Free46-0053Basketball OTHER-0079,, all of them Chinese, seem likely to end up controlling the data created by this digitally-enabled, mass-consumer market. This can bring great benefits to consumers. But it will also create immense monopoly power. Air Force LOW-0236,Nike Free46-0121Basketball James-0427,.
Finally, Nike Free45-0311,Nike Free45-0984Air Force LOW-0195,, according to the World Bank. Urbanisation could rise to 70 per cent by 2027 and then to the over 80 per cent normal in the advanced economies, with most of the new inhabitants moving to Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and inland, Kid NIKE25-37-0081,Nike Free45-0993Basketball James-0381,.
The development of the new mass consumer economy will demand important supporting policies. These will include upgrading of skills, spreading benefits of Kid free28-35-0099,Nike Free45-1006Nike Free45-0497,, tackling China’s vast environmental challenges and strengthening the trust that a history of fakes and tainted products has damaged.
The plausible assumption, however, is that over the next decade a mass consumer society will emerge in China. This will begin to approach that of the US in scale, even though the average living standard will remain well below that level. Moreover, Nike Free44-0682,Jordans 11-0191Basketball Hyperdunk-0090,.
A vast middle class of people with an income affording more than the basic essentials of existence, will also emerge. These consumers will be not only be more demanding, but will seek goods and services that enrich their lives.
The great probability is that all of this will indeed happen. Nike Free45-0419,Basketball Kobe-0585Nike Free45-0328,, a collapse of the global economy, domestic political upheaval — comes in the way of continued progress.
It assumes, too, that China will avoid both the “middle-income trap” and the “debt trap”. Kid NIKE25-37-0027,Man Max 90-1164Nike Free44-0597,, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than before. The country does, after all, enjoy plenty of room for rapid “catch-up” growth. Bet on success. Basketball Hyperdunk-0056,Basketball OTHER-0285Basketball LOW-0059,.