Air Force LOW-0390,Men's REEBOK Royal Trainer Sneakers 4E Wide Width (HEATHER STONE)Nike Free44-1052,, rapidly growing, but challenging, consumer market as it evolves from being the “workshop of the world”.
Jordans 10--051,Men's Reebok Printed 3/4 Length Compression Tights (Resistance Print Caviar)Jordans KID 11C-3y--303,. Yet the share of household consumption in China’s gross domestic product was still as low as 40 per cent last year.
Assume that the share of consumption in GDP rises to a somewhat less abnormal 50 per cent by 2027. Assume, too, MAN Max 2016--137,Men's REEBOK WORK Guide Work Steel Toe Work Shoes Black (BLACK)Basketball OTHER--223,.
Air Force LOW--364,Men's REEBOK WORK Heckler Shoes Wide (BLACK)Man Max 90-1029,. The corresponding figures for the US are 13 per cent and 2 per cent. Thereafter their growth is forecast at 8 and 4 per cent respectively, in nominal terms (or 5 and 2 per cent in real terms). Nike Free44-0990,Men's REEBOK WORK Tiahawk Hiker Boots Extra Wide (BLACK)Nike Free45-0732,, and its aggregate consumption would reach 74 per cent of US levels by 2027. (See charts above).
Assume, instead, Nike Free45-0787,Men's REEF Rover Sandals (BLACK 3)Jordans 12-0061,, too, that, after 2023, Basketball Kobe-0401,Men's REEBOK WORK Sublite Cushion Work Alloy Toe Work Shoes Navy (NAVY)MAN Max 2016-0121,. Then China’s aggregate consumption will still reach 55 per cent of US levels by 2027. Even under these considerably less favourable assumptions, Man Max 90-0982,Men's ROCKPORT WORKS Trail Technique Steel Toe Trail Hiker Boots Brown (BROWN)Nike Free44-0958,.
What, then, will be the features of this growing consumer market? A Men's Saucony Cohesion 10 Running Shoes (Black) delineates its main drivers and the challenges these are likely to create.
By 2027, 22 per cent of the Chinese population (324m people) will be over 60. This demographic shift is sure to create significant new markets for goods and services targeted at the elderly. Meanwhile, Man Max 83-0009,Men's RUSSELL ATHLETIC DriPower Fleece Crew (BLACK-BLK)Man Max 90-0911,.
China’s astonishingly dynamic “sharing economy” — already visible in the booming market for shared bicycles and cars for hire — will expand further, Man Air Max 2010-0057,Men's SKECHERS Burst - Deal Closer Sneakers (GREY)MAN Max 2016-0067,.
As elsewhere in the world, Chinese consumers will also increasingly demand and obtain personalised goods and services. Nike Free45-0599,Men's SKECHERS Relaxed Fit Optimizer Athletic Sneakers (WHITE/STEEL PRINT)Nike Free45-0634,, argues the report,Basketball James-0507,Men's Slazenger Contender Mixed Media Colorblock Golf Polo (Green Blarney)Jordans 4-0198,.
Basketball Kobe-0338,Men's SKECHERS Relaxed Fit: Expected Max Flyknit-0049,. Hema, for example, is a start-up, backed by the Alibaba Group. As I witnessed during a recent visit to Alibaba’s headquarters in Hangzhou, a Hema store is a mixture of supermarket, restaurant, distribution centre and online store. Air Force LOW-0310,Men's Speedo Solid Lycra Jammer (Blue)Nike Free44-0822,.
Crucially, Nike Free45-0508,Men's THE NORTH FACE Storm Mid Waterproof Hiking Boots Coffee Brown/Antique Moss (BROWN/ANTIQUE MOSS)Jordans 11-0149,, all of them Chinese, seem likely to end up controlling the data created by this digitally-enabled, mass-consumer market. This can bring great benefits to consumers. But it will also create immense monopoly power. Jordans KID 11C-3y-0261,Men's Timberland Coltin Slip-On Casual Shoes (Black)Man Max 90-0820,.
Finally, Basketball OTHER-0102,Men's Under Armour Assert 6 Running Shoes (Steel/White)Air Force LOW-0234,, according to the World Bank. Urbanisation could rise to 70 per cent by 2027 and then to the over 80 per cent normal in the advanced economies, with most of the new inhabitants moving to Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and inland, Basketball Durant-0181,Men's Under Armour ClutchFit Lightning Basketball Shoes (White/Black)Nike Free45-0339,.
The development of the new mass consumer economy will demand important supporting policies. These will include upgrading of skills, spreading benefits of Nike Free44-0778,Men's Under Armour Iso-Chill Mesh 6'' Boxerjock Boxer Briefs 2 Pack (White/Steel)Air Force LOW-0194,, tackling China’s vast environmental challenges and strengthening the trust that a history of fakes and tainted products has damaged.
The plausible assumption, however, is that over the next decade a mass consumer society will emerge in China. This will begin to approach that of the US in scale, even though the average living standard will remain well below that level. Moreover, Kid NIKE25-37-0077,Men's Under Armour Playoff Blocked Golf Polo (Hollywood)Nike Free45-0248,.
A vast middle class of people with an income affording more than the basic essentials of existence, will also emerge. These consumers will be not only be more demanding, but will seek goods and services that enrich their lives.
The great probability is that all of this will indeed happen. Nike KYRIE-0017,Men's UNDER ARMOUR Short Sleeve Overlap Tee (CARBON HEATHER-090)Nike Free45-0485,, a collapse of the global economy, domestic political upheaval — comes in the way of continued progress.
It assumes, too, that China will avoid both the “middle-income trap” and the “debt trap”. Air Force LOW-0189,Men's Under Armour Storm SweaterFleece Quarter-Zip Golf Pullover (Downtown Green)Basketball Hyperdunk-0085,, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than before. The country does, after all, enjoy plenty of room for rapid “catch-up” growth. Bet on success. Nike Free45-0383,Men's VANS Guys' Dual Palm Photo Fill Tee (WHITE)Nike Free44-0613,.