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Nike Free46-0067,Shop Nike Magista Onda Turf Trainers Shoes Mens Dk Citron/Volt 183743JH,Nike Free46-0159,, rapidly growing, but challenging, consumer market as it evolves from being the “workshop of the world”.
Jordans 11-0189,Shop Nike MD Runner Mid Shoes Mens DkBrown/Brown 512756HN,MAN Max 2017-0092,. Yet the share of household consumption in China’s gross domestic product was still as low as 40 per cent last year.
Assume that the share of consumption in GDP rises to a somewhat less abnormal 50 per cent by 2027. Assume, too, Jordans 6-0200,Shop Nike SB Fokus Skate Shoes Mens Navy/White 347576KL,Nike Free45-0945,.
Jordans KID 11C-3y-0350,Shop Nike Vapor Court Tennis Shoes Mens White/Orange 263229TN,Man Max 95-0101,. The corresponding figures for the US are 13 per cent and 2 per cent. Thereafter their growth is forecast at 8 and 4 per cent respectively, in nominal terms (or 5 and 2 per cent in real terms). Nike Free45-0883,Specials Nike Air Vapor Ace Tennis Shoes Mens White/Silver 751846PA,Nike Free46-0178,, and its aggregate consumption would reach 74 per cent of US levels by 2027. (See charts above).
Assume, instead, Jordans 12-0108,Specials Nike Dart 12 Sn63 Shoes Mens Grey/White 555465CA,Man Max 87-0211,, too, that, after 2023, MAN Max 2017-0051,Specials Nike Hypervenom Phelon FG Football Boots Mens White/Black/Org 410995HC,Basketball OTHER-0264,. Then China’s aggregate consumption will still reach 55 per cent of US levels by 2027. Even under these considerably less favourable assumptions, Nike wonen Flyknit-0140,Specials Nike Nightgazer Trainers Shoes Mens Blue/White 518304TB,Nike Free44-1064,.
What, then, will be the features of this growing consumer market? A Specials Nike Primo Suede Mid Hi Trainers Shoes Mens Navy/White 797027FL, delineates its main drivers and the challenges these are likely to create.
By 2027, 22 per cent of the Chinese population (324m people) will be over 60. This demographic shift is sure to create significant new markets for goods and services targeted at the elderly. Meanwhile, Nike Free45-0866,DC / EVAN SMITH HI TX BLACK / GUM ADYS300383-BL0,Jordans Sandals-0203,.
China’s astonishingly dynamic “sharing economy” — already visible in the booming market for shared bicycles and cars for hire — will expand further, Man Max Sandals-0014,DC / EVAN SMITH S VINTAGE INDIGO ADYS300203-VGO,Max Flyknit-0068,.
As elsewhere in the world, Chinese consumers will also increasingly demand and obtain personalised goods and services. Nike Free46-0132,NIKE / AIR MAX TAVAS PM WHITE / BLACK-PURE PLATINUM 898016-100,Jordans 12--092,, argues the report,MAN Max 2016--140,NIKE / AIR MAX ZERO SE LIGHT BONE / BLACK-BLACK 918232-003,Air Force LOW--375,.
Man Max 90-1033,SUPRA / INETO BLACK / WHITE 08054-023-M,Nike Free44-1013,. Hema, for example, is a start-up, backed by the Alibaba Group. As I witnessed during a recent visit to Alibaba’s headquarters in Hangzhou, a Hema store is a mixture of supermarket, restaurant, distribution centre and online store. Nike Free45-0722,JORDAN / AIR JORDAN 1 MID WHITE / BLACK-WHITE 554724-110,Jordans Sandals-0163,.
Crucially, Man Air Max 2010-0076,VANS / ERA (CANVAS) DARK SLATE / CHERRY TOMATO VA38FRMV7,MAN Max 2016-0116,, all of them Chinese, seem likely to end up controlling the data created by this digitally-enabled, mass-consumer market. This can bring great benefits to consumers. But it will also create immense monopoly power. Air Force LOW-0343,VANS / SLIP-ON PRO (THRASHER) BLACK VA347VOTE,Basketball OTHER-0178,.
Finally, Kid free28-35-0187,VANS / NEXPA LITE (RASTA) SNDL BLACK / CHILI PEPPER V4MGIJ1,Nike Free45-0592,, according to the World Bank. Urbanisation could rise to 70 per cent by 2027 and then to the over 80 per cent normal in the advanced economies, with most of the new inhabitants moving to Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and inland, Nike Flyknit-0143,VANS / WMNS AUTHENTIC (FRESSNESS) FLORAL / YELLOW VA38EMMP5,Basketball James-0498,.
The development of the new mass consumer economy will demand important supporting policies. These will include upgrading of skills, spreading benefits of Jordans flight-0054,QUIKSILVER / SIDEWAYS 17 SWSH SIDEWAYS 100 NAVY BLAZER EQYJV03060-BYJ6,Man Max UM-0046,, tackling China’s vast environmental challenges and strengthening the trust that a history of fakes and tainted products has damaged.
The plausible assumption, however, is that over the next decade a mass consumer society will emerge in China. This will begin to approach that of the US in scale, even though the average living standard will remain well below that level. Moreover, Air Force LOW-0294,VANS / AUTHENTIC CHINO S BLACK VA3143BLK,Nike Free44-0848,.
A vast middle class of people with an income affording more than the basic essentials of existence, will also emerge. These consumers will be not only be more demanding, but will seek goods and services that enrich their lives.
The great probability is that all of this will indeed happen. Basketball James-0440,CONVERSE / FLYKNIT WORDMARK STACKED S/S BLACK 10003427-001,Jordans flight-0050,, a collapse of the global economy, domestic political upheaval — comes in the way of continued progress.
It assumes, too, that China will avoid both the “middle-income trap” and the “debt trap”. Man Max 90-0858,DC / ACYD BALL S/S BLACK EDYZT03578-KVJ0,Man Max TN-0189,, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than before. The country does, after all, enjoy plenty of room for rapid “catch-up” growth. Bet on success. Basketball Durant-0191,SUPRA / RIVAL JERSEY S/S BLACK 103440-008,Basketball James-0403,.