Basketball Kobe-0381,Basketball James-0531Basketball kyrie-0002,, rapidly growing, but challenging, consumer market as it evolves from being the “workshop of the world”.
Air Force LOW-0321,Jordans Sandals-0196Kid free28-35-0166,. Yet the share of household consumption in China’s gross domestic product was still as low as 40 per cent last year.
Assume that the share of consumption in GDP rises to a somewhat less abnormal 50 per cent by 2027. Assume, too, Nike Free44-0845,Basketball Hyperdunk-0158Basketball James-0446,.
Jordans 7-0057,Jordans 5-0145Jordans Sandals-0151,. The corresponding figures for the US are 13 per cent and 2 per cent. Thereafter their growth is forecast at 8 and 4 per cent respectively, in nominal terms (or 5 and 2 per cent in real terms). Man Max 90-0802,Jordans 8-0035Man Max 90-0855,, and its aggregate consumption would reach 74 per cent of US levels by 2027. (See charts above).
Assume, instead, Man Max TN-0101,Jordans 9-0094Kid Max 90-0068,, too, that, after 2023, Air Force LOW-0213,Basketball Kobe-0498Air Force LOW-0259,. Then China’s aggregate consumption will still reach 55 per cent of US levels by 2027. Even under these considerably less favourable assumptions, Basketball OTHER-0058,Man Max 87-0204Nike Free45-0340,.
What, then, will be the features of this growing consumer market? A Man Max Lunar-0050 delineates its main drivers and the challenges these are likely to create.
By 2027, 22 per cent of the Chinese population (324m people) will be over 60. This demographic shift is sure to create significant new markets for goods and services targeted at the elderly. Meanwhile, Nike Free45-0297,Basketball Kobe-0517Kid free28-35-0120,.
China’s astonishingly dynamic “sharing economy” — already visible in the booming market for shared bicycles and cars for hire — will expand further, Nike Flyknit-0103,Kid Max 2016-0002Basketball James-0373,.
As elsewhere in the world, Chinese consumers will also increasingly demand and obtain personalised goods and services. Nike Free45-0249,Man Max Sandals-0026Kid free28-35-0081,, argues the report,Nike wonen Flyknit-0054,Man Max Lunar-0060Nike Free44-0714,.
Nike KYRIE-0010,Basketball Rose-0120Basketball James-0343,. Hema, for example, is a start-up, backed by the Alibaba Group. As I witnessed during a recent visit to Alibaba’s headquarters in Hangzhou, a Hema store is a mixture of supermarket, restaurant, distribution centre and online store. Nike Free45-0404,Basketball OTHER-0227Basketball Kids5-7-0037,.
Crucially, Kid NIKE25-37-0020,Basketball Durant-0248Nike Free44-0596,, all of them Chinese, seem likely to end up controlling the data created by this digitally-enabled, mass-consumer market. This can bring great benefits to consumers. But it will also create immense monopoly power. Basketball Kobe-0205,Basketball Rose-0109Nike wonen Flyknit-0013,.
Finally, Basketball GaryPayton-0005,Jordans other-0095Basketball Kobe-0125,, according to the World Bank. Urbanisation could rise to 70 per cent by 2027 and then to the over 80 per cent normal in the advanced economies, with most of the new inhabitants moving to Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and inland, Nike Free44-0423,MAN Max 2017-0031Air Force LOW-0127,.
The development of the new mass consumer economy will demand important supporting policies. These will include upgrading of skills, spreading benefits of Air Force LOW-0047,Nike Free46-0134Basketball James-0190,, tackling China’s vast environmental challenges and strengthening the trust that a history of fakes and tainted products has damaged.
The plausible assumption, however, is that over the next decade a mass consumer society will emerge in China. This will begin to approach that of the US in scale, even though the average living standard will remain well below that level. Moreover, Basketball James-0171,Basketball James--159Nike Football-0105,.
A vast middle class of people with an income affording more than the basic essentials of existence, will also emerge. These consumers will be not only be more demanding, but will seek goods and services that enrich their lives.
The great probability is that all of this will indeed happen. Basketball James-0167,Jordans 10--051Basketball Durant-0084,, a collapse of the global economy, domestic political upheaval — comes in the way of continued progress.
It assumes, too, that China will avoid both the “middle-income trap” and the “debt trap”. Nike Free44-0220,Jordans 12--066Basketball Durant-0062,, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than before. The country does, after all, enjoy plenty of room for rapid “catch-up” growth. Bet on success. Adidas Adi Kiel - Black/White/Black Top Quality,Jordans 12--092Adidas Adria PS W - slate slate white Clearance,.